Every fantasy football season, we at Late Night Fantasy scream “DO NOT TAKE A QB EARLY IN YOUR DRAFT!” But some people are probably going to anyway.
So, here are our top-10 fantasy QBs this season:
10. Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams – 99th Overall
The biggest question entering the season for Jared Goff is simply, what can he do without Gurley to rely on? If Gurley is legitimately in more of a RB committee role in Los Angeles, can Jared Goff carry a heavier load in the offense? The McVay system definitely helps Goff succeed and should continue to prove fruitful for fantasy owners of Goff. While he has never reached the peak of guys like Rodgers, Mahomes or Wilson in terms of fantasy success – Goff is still a safe high-end QB2, if not a low-end QB1.
Having the 8th easiest schedule for QBs paired with McVay should warrant taking Goff before guys like Cam Newton or Ben Roethlisberger who enter the season with plenty of questions surrounding them.
9. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints – 92nd Overall
Entering his age 40 season, Drew Brees has showed no signs of slowing down at any point. The Saints have a top-5 WR in Michael Thomas and a top-5 RB in Alvin Kamara. Having those two dynamic pieces along with a newly signed Jared Cook at TE and a plethora of reliable receivers, should indicate a good season for Drew Brees. The only thing that will stop Brees from being a top fantasy QB is a more concerted effort to run the ball. These Saints are the Saints from four or five years ago, there’s no games with 45 to 60 pass attempts. With that being said though, expect high efficiency and plenty of touchdowns for Brees through the air.
The Saints offense is too stacked for Brees to have a low floor, they are going to score touchdowns and Brees will account for a large portion of them. Just don’t expect to get true value if you take Brees before the sixth or seventh round in your draft.
8. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks – 90th Overall
Wilson much like Brees is a tricky QB in fantasy football, thanks in large part to the shift in offensive scheme. The Seahawks put a much larger emphasis on running the ball in 2018 and it forced Wilson’s pass attempts to take a dip. Wilson still managed to throw 36 touchdowns, however. Despite less passes thrown, he was still incredibly efficient and ranked 3rd in the NFL for passing TDs. Wilson will need his young receivers to step up in 2019 though. Replacing Doug Baldwin is the first priority, who has arguably been the best passing target Wilson has had in his career. Pete Carroll and the Seahawks have surrounded Wilson with explosive WRs that can stretch the field though. For the QB that throws the best deep ball in the NFL, having guys like Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf makes that big play potential very exciting.
7. Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles – 88th Overall
The obvious concern for drafting Carson Wentz is his health. He seemed to be fully recovered from a torn ACL in 2017, only to suffer a season ending back injury in 2018. How well he has recovered from the back injury will dictate where Wentz should go in a draft. His touchdown numbers dipped in 2018 but he was more efficient than in 2017 when he was well on his way to the NFL MVP. Wentz entered camp with no restrictions and has been a full go in camp, great news for fantasy owners.
The Eagles have a great offensive line and tons of weapons around Wentz. If he can stay healthy, it should be a big year from the Eagles QB. He probably won’t replicate the explosive year from 2017 but Wentz can surely be a top 5 fantasy quarterback.
6. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons – 76th Overall
The former league MVP was quietly great in 2018, finishing as the No. 2 quarterback in fantasy football. Ryan is often forgotten about by fantasy owners because the name is not as flashy as guys like Mahomes or Mayfield but Ryan is set up to succeed.
The Falcons are loaded with weapons on offense and Ryan will have his plenty of flavors to choose from. Matty “Ice” is essentially guaranteed to put up 4,000 yards and 25 TDs. If they decide to throw Julio Jones the ball in the red zone, those touchdown numbers will only go up.
5. Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns – 74th Overall
Is there a more hyped quarterback right now than Baker Mayfield? After tying the rookie record for TD passes as a rookie and adding Odell Beckham Jr. to his list of weapons, expectations are very high for the year-two QB. Mayfield faces one of the toughest schedules for all QBs in 2019, ranked 30/32. Pair this with Freddie Kitchens and his seeming desire for balance on offense, it is tough to buy Mayfield’s ceiling any higher than the No. 5 QB in 2019.
Mayfield has a history of proving the doubters wrong though.
4. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts – 62nd Overall
Our immediate advice to any fantasy owners looking to draft Andrew Luck in 2019 – pay attention to his calf injury and see how it develops. Luck has not been very active in camp and it’s difficult to evaluate how much the injury will limit Luck going in to the season. At least it’s not his shoulder, right?
Luck has finished as a top-five quarterback in each of his healthy seasons. With an improved receiver core in 2019 – a ceiling of 5,000 yard and 40 touchdowns is in the realm of possibility.
Just be sure to closely monitor his health situation going into your draft.
3. DeShaun Watson, Houston Texans – 59th Overall
The hype around DeShaun Watson only continues to grow after a very impressive first 23 games in the NFL. Watson was the No. 4 QB in 2018, despite playing nine games without Will Fuller. If guys like Fuller and Coutee can stay healthy it will only give Watson more options in the offense and help his production grow even more. Adding Duke Johnson Jr. from Cleveland will give Watson a much needed check down option in the backfield.
The biggest concern with Watson surely has to be the Texans’ ability to protect their franchise QB. Watson was sacked 62 times in 2018, he managed to play all 16 games despite playing most of the season hurt. Watson was the fourth ranked QB last year despite all of the sacks and injuries to his WRs, expect him to continue to develop and put up big numbers. Just be wary of the things he cannot control – like being sacked A LOT.
2. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers – 58th Overall
There is a reasonable concern in regards to the weapons the Packers have put around Aaron Rodgers going in to the 2019 season. Last season was the first year since 2008 that Rodgers played 16 games and threw fewer than 30 TDs, but despite this Rodgers was still the 6th overall QB in fantasy. Last season was also the first time Rodgers has played 16 games and not finished in the top-two of fantasy quarterbacks.
There is no reason to believe the 35 year old Aaron Rodgers will slow down this season, even with the questions surrounding him. The floor is high for Rodgers and the ceiling is as high as it can go. Feel safe knowing that if you take Rodgers and he stays healthy, he is the QB No. 5-7 at worst and QB No. 1 at best.
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs – 37th Overall
The 23 (soon to be 24) year old quarterback had a historic season in 2018, both in fantasy and real life football. The NFL MVP accounted for 52 TDs (50 passing, 2 rushing) and over 5,000 yards. He was also the first QB since Peyton Manning in 2013 to surpass the 400pt mark in fantasy football.
There will likely be a dip back to Earth in year two as a starter for Mahomes though. While it most likely won’t be the volume of 2018, 35+ TDs and 4,000 yards is completely reasonable and more than enough to warrant Mahomes being the top QB in 2019.
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