Better hope Bama keeps winning.
Oklahoma is in great shape, most think the Sooners are set to be in the playoff, assuming wins against Kansas, West Virginia and likely TCU happen, but OU is no lock.
Here’s a nightmare scenario which could possibly keep the Sooners on the outside of the four-team playoff:
Wisconsin wins out and gets into the playoff as an undefeated conference champ.
Miami wins out and gets into the playoff as an undefeated conference champ.
Georgia wins out and gets in as a one-loss SEC champ after beating Alabama.
Alabama gets in as a one-loss, SEC runner-up.
Likely to happen? No. Could, though. In this scenario, Bama will have beaten Auburn to get to the SEC title game and will have wins against Florida State, at Mississippi State and at Auburn. It’s only loss would be against Georgia, which has played a good schedule and has quality wins.
Now, Oklahoma has and will have, great wins, too. The Sooners will have victories over Oklahoma State, Ohio State, TCU and probably TCU again. That’s an impressive record.
But there’s a wildcard at work. It’s the committee. We have no idea what anyone behind those closed doors is thinking and we have no idea how the committee comes to a conclusion. There’s no formula, that we know of, and there’s no disclosed criteria that is being applied.
So, while OU will have some great wins, Alabama’s are at least comparable. Do you trust a committee that has to give no real answers, that they will choose an Oklahoma team over an SEC runner-up? I don’t. Last year, OU was docked for not playing good enough defense. Meanwhile, Ohio State got in on the back of beating Oklahoma, despite not winning its conference. The point is, no one knows what set of rules the committee will use this time around. If they value a conference title, an unbeaten Wisconsin team shouldn’t have an issue, despite the Badgers having played a soft schedule.
Want a lock for the Sooners? Hope Bama wins out, which would eliminate Georgia and Auburn. Hope Ohio State beats Wisconsin because a good Ohio State team won’t pass Oklahoma. That happens and the Sooners are in.
Until then, nothing is for sure.
OK, moving ahead …
Here are this week’s Franchise Rankings, which has OU in the top four for the first time this year. Unlike the committee, these rankings are transparent. Take a look.
Ready to do the math? Here’s the formula.
Win – 2 points
Win over ranked team – 1 point
Loss to unranked AP Top 25 team (-1)
Loss to ranked AP Top 25 opponent – (-0.5)
0.25 points – for each win over a team currently ranked in AP Top 25 that wasn’t at time of game.
(-0.25) – for each win against a team team that isn’t currently ranked in AP Top 25 but was at time of game.
For example: Oklahoma is 9-1. That’s 18 points for the nine wins. Give OU 1 more point for its win against Ohio State and 1 more point for beating Oklahoma State and one more for beating TCU. Subtract 1 for its loss to Iowa State. Total = 20.00 points
(last week’s Franchise Ranking)
1. Alabama (2) – 22.75
2. Clemson (3) – 20.75
2. Wisconsin (5) – 20.75
4. Oklahoma (7) – 20.00
5. Miami (8) – 19.75
6. Georgia (1) – 19.50
7. USC (NR) – 18.75
8. UCF (9) – 18.25
9. Washington St. (10) – 18.00
10. TCU (6) – 17.00
Others: Oklahoma State 16.75; Auburn 16.75; Ohio State 16.50
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